Twentieth Century Chronicle

Page 240

However, after the Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War, Japan's external threats obviously diminished. Young men could no longer rise through military merit, so seniority became the norm in the military, making it difficult for talented soldiers from outside Choshu to advance. Nagata knew he had missed his prime opportunity. If he couldn't defeat the Choshu faction, even if he gained Tamura's favor, his future would be uncertain, especially since Tamura himself was a target of the Choshu faction.

In contrast, he genuinely admired Hayashi Nobuyoshi of the Navy. This young officer, the same age as himself, had established his position as a leader among the young officers in the Navy by overthrowing the Yamamoto Gonnohyōe faction. Yamamoto Gonnohyōe's position in the Navy was no less than that of Yamagata Aritomo, but he had never dared to consider expelling Yamagata from the Army. Therefore, Hayashi Nobuyoshi became the future leader of the Navy, while he could only remain a somewhat talented Army officer.

Spurred by what Lin Xinyi had done, the biggest advantage of being around Tamura was that a large amount of intelligence about Lin Xinyi would be reviewed and organized by Nagata before being handed over to Tamura. This process of organizing and analyzing Lin Xinyi's intelligence made Nagata and his friends admire this young naval officer to the point of prostration.

What Nagata Tetsuzan admired wasn't Hayashi Nobuyoshi's ability to seize opportunities. Frankly, if Hayashi had broken free from his awe of the organization, he could have done the same. However, his reverence for the organization made it difficult for him to bear the consequences, so he could only obey the organization's rules. What Nagata admired was Hayashi Nobuyoshi's ability to create opportunities. Almost all the opportunities in the Navy that favored Hayashi Nobuyoshi were created by him, not waited for. This was the fundamental reason why Yamamoto Gonnohyōe and Saitō Makoto, despite their power, couldn't deal with Hayashi Nobuyoshi.

Dissatisfaction with the Choshu faction quickly transformed into an ambition to overthrow it. Nagata Tetsuzan felt that what Hayashi Shin-yi could do, he might be able to do as well. He also had a group of young officers around him who were trying to change the army. After seeing Hayashi Shin-yi's experience, these people also changed their complaints about the Choshu faction to the idea of ​​changing the army through action.

In response to Minister Tamura's concerns about the future dominance of the navy, Tetsuzan Nagata quickly remarked: "The navy's rise is due to its internal unity, while the army is currently rife with factions. If the factional struggles within the army are not changed, then no matter how much we oppose the navy's rise, the situation will not change."

Tamura wasn't surprised by Nagata's opinion, as it was also his own. It was precisely because Nagata's views were almost identical to his that he trusted this young officer so quickly. However, he still sighed and said, "It's difficult. Factions in the army aren't so easy to eliminate. Even if you become the Minister of the Army, it's still difficult to resolve these factions."

Nagata Tetsuzan bluntly stated, "The so-called factional struggle within the army is actually a struggle caused by the Choshu faction's monopoly of high-ranking positions in the army. Because of the existence of the Choshu faction, those below can only form small groups to protect themselves, otherwise they will be easily suppressed by the Choshu faction and unable to rise to the top. To resolve the factionalism in the military, we must first defeat the Choshu faction before we can eliminate the other factions."

Tamura's thinking had also changed drastically at this time, shifting from the pro-Choshu faction to neutrality. He now felt that the Choshu faction was the biggest obstacle to the unity of the army. After all, he, as the Minister of the Army, was practically a figurehead in front of the Choshu faction. He could only follow the decisions made by the Choshu faction, such as Yamagata Aritomo, Katsura Taro, and Terauchi Masatake, and could not object to them. Even if he objected, the Choshu faction would eventually make it a reality through the Three Chiefs Meeting.

Therefore, he not only did not rebuke Nagata Tetsuzan for his bold remarks, but also nodded and said, "The Choshu faction is indeed the biggest problem. Without the Choshu faction's suppression of various factions, there would be no need for the various factions in the military to exist. It's just... difficult to deal with."

Seeing this, Nagata Tetsuzan advised, "The path to advancement in the Army lies in the Army War College. In the past, Yamagata elders established the Choshu faction's dominance by controlling the Army War College. I believe that to suppress the Choshu faction, we must first seize control of the Army War College. As long as we cut off the path for officers from Choshu to enter the Army War College, without the addition of new blood, it will be difficult for the Choshu faction to control the Army."

Tamura considered Nagata's suggestion for a moment but did not immediately reply. He changed the subject, saying, "Even so, we still cannot change the upward trend of the navy. If the army continues to decline, even if we deal with the Choshu faction, it will probably be meaningless."

Nagata was speechless. The navy's rise was not a temporary phenomenon, but rather a continuation of the national strategy. To interrupt the navy's rise was essentially to completely change Japan's national strategy. As things stand, the army had no other options besides launching a coup.

After much deliberation, Nagata said, "The interests on the Korean Peninsula are not enough for Japan to abandon the Asian Alliance. Compared with the Army's continental policy, the Asian Alliance can make Japan become the leader of the various Asian nations more quickly. The establishment of the Wuhan regime also represents China's beginning of an upward trend. The biggest opponent of the Army's continental policy is actually the emerging power represented by Wuhan, which is not comparable to the old forces like Yuan Shikai. I don't think Lieutenant Colonel Tanaka's plan for the independence of Manchuria and Mongolia has any chance of being realized."

Tamura glanced at Nagata and then asked, "So, in your opinion, what new path can the Army take to replace the Continental Policy after abandoning it?"

After a long silence, Nagata Tetsuzan shook his head and said, "As things stand, it's difficult for any plan proposed by the Army to surpass the Navy's Asian Alliance proposal. This is because the Navy aims to build a new order in Asia, while the Army's continental policy actually pursues an East Asian order under Japanese rule. The Army's plan naturally faces opposition from Korea, China, and the great powers, while the Navy has already gained the support of China and Germany. It can be said that the Navy's new Asian order has entered the implementation stage, while the Army's East Asian order hasn't even touched the door. It's clearly impossible to find a shortcut to surpass the Navy on the old path."

Tamura nodded in agreement, saying, "That's right. The Navy's approach of using the Asian Alliance to achieve a new order in Asia has left the Army far behind. If the Army continues to resist the Asian Alliance, it will only further antagonize itself with various political and financial forces in the country, and it will not be able to change the reality."

After a long silence in Tamura's office, Nagata finally spoke boldly: "I think there is only one way now, which is to copy the Navy's plan and break the situation in the alliance where Japan dominates the sea and China dominates the land. Only by breaking this situation can the Army find a way out in the alliance and avoid being constantly suppressed by the Navy."

Tamura finally became interested in Nagata's ideas. The struggle between the army and the navy was now completely at a disadvantage, and this disadvantage referred to the strategic aspect. Although the army still held considerable power in military strategy, high-ranking army officers like Tamura could see that the army's future development would inevitably be suppressed by the navy, because China's resurgence was too rapid, making the army's continental policy a mere formality.

Although the Changju faction clung tightly to the mainland policy, in this local war in northern Korea, the generals of the Changju faction had actually lost confidence in taking over Manchuria, because the army was even unable to wipe out the Korean independence army supported by the Chinese, so how could they talk about taking over Manchuria?

Although Tanaka Giichi proposed the Manchurian-Mongolian independence proposal, attempting to win over the northern ethnic minorities of China to independence and establish a historical norm on the East Asian continent, with northern ethnic minorities occupying the grasslands and Liaodong, and Han Chinese dynasties controlling the areas within the Great Wall, thus creating a situation of confrontation. Only such a situation could allow Japan to exert influence over the Manchurian and Mongolian regions.

However, Tamura was not a soldier who had not been exposed to modern civilization. He immediately saw the biggest flaw in Tanaka's theory of Manchuria and Mongolian independence, which was that it ignored the impact of modern technology on the natural environment and human society. In contrast, Hayashi Shin-yi's proposals always combined the impact of these modern technologies with geopolitical changes.

In fact, some of the top-secret intelligence within the Navy was something neither Tanaka nor Nagata had ever seen, but Tamura did manage to access it through his connection with Togo Masamichi. Togo Masamichi showed him this intelligence to prove that the continental plan was doomed. Even before graduating, Hayashi Shin-yi had deduced that the Army must have a plan to first incite independence in Manchuria and Mongolia, and then annex them, refuting this plan from a realistic perspective. After reading it, Tamura concluded that Hayashi Shin-yi's rebuttal was valid.

Lin Xinyi's argument was that China would either not revive, or if it did, it would be divided into several parts. The northern region would be coveted by Russia, and the south would be divided up by Britain, the United States, France, and Germany. It would be impossible for Japan to monopolize Manchuria and Mongolia, and it would even be besieged by the combined forces of the great powers. This was because, for the great powers, since China had already been divided up, Japan would have lost its reason for existence. The reason the great powers supported Japan was to contain China. When China perished, Japan, this watchdog, could be killed to prevent the emergence of a powerful nation of yellow race in East Asia.

If China were to revive, it would inevitably have to pursue industrialization. Industrialization requires vast amounts of raw materials, which can only be obtained from sparsely populated border regions. At this point, conflict between China and Japan over Manchuria and Mongolia would be inevitable. Even with the support of the great powers, Japan could only delay China's industrialization for a few years. Once China's industry reached a preliminary stage of completion, Japan would no longer be able to gain an advantage over China on the mainland. Continental nations would prioritize developing their land forces, while Japan would need a balanced development of its army and navy. This meant that Japan, already weak, would have to use half its national strength to compete with a continental power far superior in land forces, making Japan's demise inevitable.

Hayashi Nobuyoshi's advocacy of an Asian alliance was built on the premise of refuting the Army's continental policy, which he argued would only drag Japan into destruction. Therefore, the Navy needed an Asian alliance to counter the Army's military strategy. Tamura acknowledged that Hayashi's ability to become the Navy's brain was not mere flattery; he had indeed reached a certain theoretical level, and he couldn't even show this to the Army, as it would have an uncertain impact on the Army's future.

Of course, if Nagata Tetsuzan could realize this himself, he would still be very willing to listen to what new ideas the other party had. Encouraged by Tamura, Nagata Tetsuzan finally boldly said: "The idea of ​​the Asian Alliance is very much in the style of Hayashi Shin-yi. He excludes those forces that are difficult to control and then uses the forces that can be controlled to achieve his goals."

For example, the three main components of the alliance are Japan, China, and Germany. Japan abandoned its army, Germany abandoned its main European part, and China did not have a navy. Therefore, the alliance has formed a cooperation model with China and Japan as the main players, and Japan at sea and China at land.

I believe that to seize naval control over the alliance, the first step is to break the tacit understanding between Japan, the navy, the central government, and the land forces. To break this tacit understanding, it is necessary to undermine the alliance's neutral position in the confrontation in Europe.

I believe the Germans don't only expect the alliance to remain neutral; it's just that the alliance's neutrality falls right on Germany's bottom line. Therefore, if the alliance has the potential to become Germany's supporter in Asia, Germany will undoubtedly do everything in its power to achieve it.

The key for the army to seize naval control of the Alliance lies in joining forces with Germany. We should encourage closer ties between Japan and Germany to gain German support for the army's influence over the Alliance. When the Alliance and Germany form an alliance, it means that India and Central Asia in the east will be threatened by the Alliance.

Therefore, China would have no choice but to further cooperate with the army. Our goal was to join Germany in the war against the Allies and seize Australia, New Zealand, the Dutch East Indies, and the British Straits Settlements. If Germany and the Allies reached a stalemate in Europe, our gains in Asia would become real military achievements. The army could then abandon its continental policy and turn to the Southern Plan.”

Tamura was stunned for a long time before saying to Nagata, "This is simply a gamble. The naval neutrality policy is actually the most beneficial to Japan. No matter who wins in Europe, Japan will gain more say in the South Seas. But with your plan, if Germany loses, Japan may suffer a major defeat."

Nagata insisted on his position, saying, "But we can guarantee that the army won't be abandoned. And we might not necessarily lose, especially if Hayashi Nobuyoshi were to plan this war..."

End of this chapter

Chapter 760

In February 1910, a case in which an army sergeant assaulted an army second lieutenant shocked Japanese society and brought the army and the imperial family into the public spotlight. The case caught the attention of Emperor Meiji, who asked Army Minister Tamura to handle the case properly in order to quell public opinion.

The case on the Minister of the Army's desk was not complicated. Last September, the sergeant's younger brother was beaten and seriously injured by the lieutenant. Instead of receiving any medical treatment, he was put in solitary confinement. After struggling all night, the injured man was already in critical condition the next morning. Although he was taken to the hospital, he died.

The sergeant attempted to appeal the second lieutenant's case on behalf of his brother, but the division commander of the regiment was Prince Kan'in. He believed that if the second lieutenant were found guilty, it would inevitably encourage soldiers to challenge officers and make it difficult to maintain military discipline. Furthermore, the soldier had already made a mistake by arguing with his superior beforehand. Therefore, Prince Kan'in suppressed the sergeant's appeal.

Because the division was the 1st Guards Division, the division members believed that the officer's mistreatment of the soldier to death would damage the reputation of the 1st Guards Division if the news got out. In addition, given Prince Jai-in's status as a member of the imperial family, they tacitly approved of the prince's handling of the case.

However, the soldier's family and the lieutenant's family actually lived in the same village. The former was the latter's tenant. The reason for the argument was that the lieutenant believed that the soldier's family had seized his land. The soldier retorted, "The grain is grown by the farmers. Landlords only take away the fruits of the farmers' labor by seizing the land. There is no such thing as landlords supporting farmers."

The lieutenant became enraged and brutally beat the soldier. After the beating, he refused the request from nearby soldiers to take the soldier to medical treatment and instead demanded that the soldier be detained overnight. The testimony of the soldiers who witnessed the incident indicated that the lieutenant knew that doing so would lead to the soldier's death, and that it was murder, not an accident.

The sergeant's appeal for his brother's case went unsuccessfully, and he was notified by his superiors that he was on the discharge list. When he went home to visit his family, he happened to meet a second lieutenant who was home recuperating. Although the 1st Division did not punish the second lieutenant, the soldiers were dissatisfied with the death of the soldier after hearing about the incident. In order to prevent a mass incident, the second lieutenant's superiors simply let him go home to recuperate under the pretext of medical treatment, in order to wait for the dissent in the army to subside.

So, the sergeant bumped into the lieutenant on the road. After questioning him, he not only failed to receive an apology but was also insulted by the lieutenant. Enraged, the sergeant attacked the lieutenant, and in the fight, the sergeant blinded one of the lieutenant's eyes.

Although the two men were soldiers, their fight occurred in a local area, so the case was naturally handled by the local police. Chiba Prefecture, where the two men were from, was a relatively peaceful rural area, so this bizarre story naturally attracted the attention of tabloids. Soon, the case was linked to the land reform being promoted in Chiba Prefecture, and was then widely reported by Tokyo newspapers. The focus quickly shifted to the army, accusing it of protecting landowners, trampling on judicial fairness, and raising questions about whether the judiciary had the authority to handle criminal cases within the military.

The dispute over jurisdiction between the judiciary and the military arose because the army attempted to wrest the case back from the local judiciary and handle it itself, which angered officials in the Ministry of Justice.

Justice Minister Yoshimichi Hara stated that although the parties involved in the case are both military personnel, the case occurred in their hometown, therefore it is a civil dispute and has nothing to do with military affairs. The military cannot interfere with local judicial power.

Hara Yoshimichi's statement received support from public opinion and the Navy. Although some naval officers tried to explain the Army's actions, they worried that the Ministry of Justice would use this case as a precedent to interfere in criminal cases within the Navy.

The Army and Navy oppose the Ministry of Justice's jurisdiction over criminal cases in the military because their training is rife with violence. There are many cases of soldiers being physically punished and killed. If the Ministry of Justice were to investigate these casualties, many would be criminal cases rather than accidents. As a violent organization, how can the military be regulated by law? The military is merely a tool trained for war and has no need for legal awareness.

However, the Reform Society, led by Lin Hsin-yi, suppressed such voices, stating that "this case is not a judicial interference in military discipline, but rather the army's propaganda of anti-government sentiments within its organization."

Land reform was a decree passed by the government in the Diet and approved by the Emperor. How dare an army lieutenant openly claim that land reform was about seizing the property of landowners and violently kill soldiers who were upholding the government's decree? If we condone such an event, then wouldn't it also be the army's prerogative to use force to overthrow the cabinet the next time?

The Navy's support for the Army is tantamount to suicide, because the Navy is no match for the Army in terms of organized violence. Only under the constraints of the law can the Navy restrain the Army's behavior. We should uphold the authority of the government, not the privilege of a few within the military to physically punish soldiers.

After two prime ministers, the sense of alienation between the navy and the government had lessened. Previously, the navy did not consider the government as an integral part of itself, and they often wavered between the military and the cabinet to secure the greatest benefit for themselves. However, after the tenures of Prime Ministers Ito and Yamamoto, the navy began to view the government as a tool for implementing its policies, and its past indecisiveness gave way to a stance of supporting the government.

At the same time, the Reform Society, which facilitated Germany's return of Jiaozhou Bay, gained a much stronger voice within the Navy. In the past, the Reform Society was only regarded as a young force in the Navy. The Navy's senior leadership acknowledged that these young forces were the future of the Navy, but now the Navy's decision-making power still belonged to them.

However, with the successful planning of the Yellow Sea military exercises, the forced return of the Jiaozhou Bay leased territory to Germany, and the imminent establishment of the Asian Alliance, the Reform Society transformed from the future hope of the navy into its most solid pillar at present. As the leader of the Reform Society, Hayashi Shinji truly became the fifth person in the navy after the Minister of the Navy, Chief of the General Staff, Director-General of Education, and Commander-in-Chief of the Combined Fleet. Even without the voice of the Minister of the Navy, Kawahara, his proposals could garner the support of many naval officers.

Hayashi Nobuyoshi's support for government authority and the rule of law aligns the navy with the government and public opinion in this case, transforming what the army attempted to suppress into a social focal point. What prompted Emperor Meiji to take the case seriously was that, after the public outcry, attention suddenly focused on Prince Kan'in Kotohito. Public opinion held that it was the prince's mishandling of the situation that caused the sergeant to lose his temper and attack the officer, rather than a simple act of insubordination.

This sergeant had a good reputation in the military and had saved the lives of many of his men during the Russo-Japanese War. As a result, his soldiers wrote a joint letter to plead for his life. These letters were published in the newspapers, and the public suddenly realized that violence in the military was commonplace and that many training injuries and deaths in the army were actually caused by abuse by officers, sergeants, and veterans.

As a result of such reporting, public opinion that military affairs should not be subject to external interference began to decline, while opinions advocating equality for all under the constitution and that the military is not above the law began to increase. This shift in public opinion caused Emperor Meiji anxiety, fearing that it would lead to public questioning of the Emperor's command over the army and navy, thereby undermining the constitutional foundation of sovereignty residing with the Emperor.

Emperor Meiji assigned the case to the Minister of the Army because it had sparked a debate among the elder statesmen. Yamagata Aritomo, of course, advocated for maintaining the military's independence. He used the Emperor as a shield and refused to allow the cabinet to launch a judicial investigation into the case. However, Ito Sukeyuki and Matsukata Masayoshi believed that the government was also led by the Emperor, that the case was unrelated to military affairs, and that it occurred outside the military camp. Therefore, an investigation by the judiciary would better resolve public suspicion of the military.

Although Hirobumi Ito and Kaoru Inoue maintained a neutral stance on the matter, their neutrality was intended to prevent the situation from escalating. Ito told the Emperor that the army had indeed mishandled the case, while Inoue privately told Aritomo Yamagata that he believed the army's independent status was indeed inviolable.

Emperor Meiji did not want this case to cause conflict within the upper echelons, especially given his persistent illness. He had already begun preparations for the transfer of imperial power. Elevating the status of imperial family generals in the army and navy was, in his view, necessary for a smooth transition of power. However, this case had caused the public to doubt the abilities of the imperial family members, which clearly did not align with his wishes.

After analyzing the case, Tamura believed it was extremely thorny, to the point that he even put the formation of the Asian Alliance out of his mind, because no matter how the case was handled, it would cause dissatisfaction among some people, and these people were not without a voice.

Leaving aside issues outside the military, this case has already sparked conflict between soldiers and officers within the military itself. During the war, Tanaka Giichi wrote to the army's high command pointing out that the divide between officers and soldiers was too severe; officers viewed soldiers as slaves, while soldiers viewed officers as jailers, resulting in a serious lack of mutual trust.

This situation was most evident in the temporarily conscripted troops. The middle-aged soldiers who were re-enlisted simply refused to obey the officers' orders, and thus often retreated on their own during battles. Only the young soldiers who had no experience with society, under the long-term discipline of the officers, would obey military orders and carry out those death-defying missions.

Therefore, Tanaka stated that the relationship between officers and soldiers must be improved. While officers must train soldiers rigorously, they also need to respect the soldiers' dignity and avoid meaningless insults, thereby establishing a family atmosphere in the military. Officers should be strict but kind fathers, while soldiers should be obedient and loving sons.

Tanaka believed that only by establishing such family relationships could soldiers who had been discharged from the military not develop a hatred for the army, and would obey officers' orders when they were recalled, instead of going against them.

This case has now directly exposed the true relationship between officers and soldiers. Officers' beatings and humiliations of soldiers were considered a normal form of discipline, while any dissatisfaction from soldiers was seen as disrespect to the Emperor. Now, the soldiers are using this case to vent their dissatisfaction with the officers, and naturally, they are on the side of the sergeant.

As for the officers, the case also caused a division. While many opposed the sergeant's inappropriate actions, they also expressed sympathy for his plight and even launched a fundraising campaign for his family.

Another group split into two factions: one firmly supported the lieutenant, believing that officers' actions against soldiers were sacred and inviolable; the other believed the lieutenant's actions were appropriate and constituted murder. However, both factions agreed that the case should be handled by the Army itself.

Therefore, trying to smooth things over was clearly not an option, as a division had already emerged within the military, and attempting to appease both sides would only provoke them further. Moreover, external public opinion was closely watching the army's actions, and Tamura knew that if the situation was handled improperly, he would become the scapegoat in this case.

Tamura ultimately concluded that the crux of the case lay with the Navy. As long as the Navy did not stand against the Army, the military could speak with one voice. Furthermore, the influence of the Satsuma clique on the judiciary was sufficient to persuade them to help handle the case properly. Therefore, Tamura met with Masamichi Togo to seek his assistance in the case.

Togo Masamichi did not immediately agree. He frankly told Tamura, "This case is no longer one that the Army and Navy can reach an agreement on privately. I'm afraid I don't have the ability to change the Navy's stance on this case."

Tamura didn't mince words and said, "If that's the case, then arrange a meeting for me with Lieutenant Commander Hayashi. I'd like to talk to him about this case. His naval culture department has been quite vocal in its attacks on the army in the media."

Togo Masamichi had no choice but to make arrangements for Tamura. Hayashi Shinichi accepted Tamura's invitation and met with Tamura at the restaurant where Tamura and Togo often met. After the two met, Tamura bluntly pointed out that the Cultural Department was manipulating public opinion behind the case.

Lin Hsin-yi denied this, saying, "While the Cultural Affairs Department supports the various newspapers under the Arts Foundation, it generally does not interfere excessively with their business policies. The reason this case has become so widely publicized is due to the Army's own mishandling, which has sparked heated public debate. If the newspapers are to blame for this, then the Army might as well just cancel their publication. I believe that reporting the facts cannot be called conspiracy or incitement."

Although Tamura was dissatisfied with Hayashi Nobuyoshi's attitude, he still calmly said, "Corporal punishment of soldiers is not only a problem in the army, but also in the navy. Does the navy think it can remain unaffected?"

After a few seconds of silence, Lin Xinyi replied, "After the Far East War ends, I believe Japan should not face another major external war within ten years. Therefore, the privileges granted to the military in the past to prepare for war should be gradually abolished during this period of peace. This is the best measure for the country and its people. The navy does indeed have problems with corporal punishment of soldiers, so we plan to use this case in the army to rectify military discipline within the navy and limit the power of officers in order to maintain unity within the military."

Tamura glanced at Togo Masamichi with surprise. He thought that Hayashi Shinji might have overstepped his authority. This power to rectify the conduct of the army was the responsibility of a minister. However, Togo Masamichi remained silent, clearly not dissatisfied with Hayashi Shinji's words.

Tamura had no choice but to look away and said to Hayashi Shin-yi, "You're more like a minister than I am as the Minister of the Army. Perhaps you're right, the problem of corporal punishment in the military should indeed be rectified, but the image of the military also needs to be maintained. We can't expose everything about the military to the public, can we? The honor of the military, or the fact that it is trampled on, is a responsibility that no one can bear."

After thinking for a few seconds, Lin Xinyi replied, "The honor of the army certainly needs to be upheld, but protecting officers who trample on the honor of the army is probably not the right way to uphold the honor of the army."

Tamura understood the implication in Hayashi Nobuyoshi's words, so he tentatively asked, "Do you think the lieutenant should be severely punished to close the case?"

Lin Xinyi shook his head and said, "With public opinion so uproar, how can a second lieutenant possibly silence everyone? At least the division commander needs to come out and apologize before the public will believe that the army is capable of handling the case fairly."

Tamura frowned and said, "The division commander is Prince Zaihito. If we make him apologize, it would be better for Katsura Taro and me to apologize. This will shake the people's trust in the Imperial Family."

Lin Xinyi, however, said meaningfully, "The duty of imperial family generals is to provide the Emperor with professional military advice, not to give them control of the army. The army belongs to the Emperor, not the Imperial Family. I have always believed that appointing generals of Imperial lineage to command positions of real power in the army is a recipe for chaos. Under an Imperial-controlled military, ordinary generals have no power to oppose the Emperor, but generals with Imperial blood may not be able to. For the sake of national security, imperial family generals should be removed from frontline troops..."

End of this chapter

Chapter 761

If we set aside political correctness, Tamura believes that Hayashi Nobuyoshi's suggestion is quite feasible. The current situation is that the Army is trying to cover up the erroneous decisions made by Prince Kazuhito, commander of the 1st Imperial Guard Division, which has turned this case into a problem for the entire Army. If the Prince is brought into the spotlight, the Imperial Family will immediately take the blame for the Army, allowing the Army to extricate itself from the public eye.

However, the consequence of doing so is that the Imperial Family will develop a distrust of the Army, and the so-called Emperor's Army will become a joke. Can an army that can throw the Imperial Family out to shield them from public opinion attacks really be called the Emperor's Army? It would be more like calling the Emperor's Army.

However, Tamura did not refute Hayashi Nobuyoshi's claim. Instead, he raised another question: "You say that Japan will not face an external war within ten years. Doesn't the confrontation between the two major camps in Europe have any impact on Asia?"

Lin Xinyi said, "Of course it has an impact. It is precisely because of the confrontation between the two major camps in Europe that Germany has no choice but to accept the result of this naval exercise, which is that Germany is currently powerless to protect its rights in Asia. This is why Germany is willing to return Qingdao to the Chinese government and promote the establishment of an independent country for the German Pacific islands."

Tamura pressed on with interest, "Since the conflict between the two major camps in Europe is so intense, why don't we choose to ally with the victors and seize the losers' Asian colonies? Wouldn't that be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity?"

Lin Xinyi glanced at Tamura before slowly replying, "If war breaks out within ten years, Germany will definitely lose. And Germany's colonies in Asia are a liability to Japan, and it's impossible for them all to fall into Japanese hands."

With the loss of Germany's challenge to Britain and France, Britain would regain the initiative in Asia, and Japan would gain nothing but a few undeveloped, barren islands. For Japan, the golden opportunity lay in the collapse of the old world order, not in maintaining it.

Tamura frowned and asked, "Germany will lose, that's a high-probability event, but why are you so certain that they will lose within ten years? Then, ten years later, will Germany win? How will they win?"

After thinking for a moment, Lin Xinyi shared his judgment with Tamura: "The war potential of old Europe has actually been developed to its peak. As long as there is no population explosion in old Europe, or no breakthrough revolution in modern technology, the confrontation between old Europe will actually be a battle of national strength. No one can achieve a quick victory like the Franco-Prussian War."

The old-fashioned theory of decisive victory was actually a tactical approach developed under conditions of inadequate logistics, lack of universal compulsory education, and mandatory military service. Modern Europe, however, boasts the most developed railway and shipping infrastructure on Earth. Compulsory education is now largely widespread, and mandatory military service is in place. This means that as long as industrial capacity is sufficient and the young population hasn't been depleted, the nation can continue fighting.

The war capabilities of Britain, France, and Germany had almost reached the upper limit of their war potential. As for other European countries, although they had not reached the upper limit of their own war potential, apart from Russia, the population size and industrial capacity of other European countries were not enough to change significantly within ten years. Therefore, if war broke out within ten years, it would essentially be a total mobilization war between Britain and France against Germany.

Britain and France each had a population of 8000 million, while Germany had 6000 million. Germany's industrial capacity was higher than France's and on par with Britain's, so the three countries had roughly the same level of industrial development. However, Britain had vast overseas colonies and an absolutely superior navy, so in a war of attrition, Germany would inevitably lose.

Therefore, the key to victory in this European war lay outside Europe, and the decisive factors were threefold: the United States, Russia, and East Asia. Russia had a population of 1.7 million, the United States over 9000 million, and East Asia over 5 million. The United States had the strongest industrial base, East Asia the largest population, and Russia had the best geographical location.

However, within a decade, only the United States and Russia were truly capable of participating in this European war. East Asia lacked the industrial strength to exert influence over the war. Excluding East Asia, neither the United States nor Russia could support Germany. They would either remain neutral or support Britain and France, because a unified Europe under Germany would be more detrimental to the interests of the United States and Russia than the Anglo-French global colonial system.

Therefore, the key for Germany to win this war lies in gaining the support of 5 million people in East Asia. Although East Asia has almost unlimited war potential, it is limited by the level of compulsory education and poor industrial capacity. It will take at least ten years to initially establish an industrial system, and twenty years to have the ability to turn war potential into war power.

Therefore, I believe that if war breaks out within ten years, Germany will inevitably lose. Between ten and twenty years, the outcome is uncertain. Twenty years later, Germany will certainly win. However, it's unlikely Germany can hold out until ten years later to start war, which is why I think Japan needs peace.

Tamura had to admit that Nagata was a talented individual, but Hayashi Nobuyoshi was clearly a genius. While Nagata was still figuring out how to win, Hayashi Nobuyoshi had already figured out the reasons for Germany's defeat. It's no wonder the army was being led by the nose by the navy; with someone like that, what could the army possibly use to fight back?

After much deliberation, Tamura asked, "Why can't Germany wait until things change in East Asia?"

After thinking for a moment, Lin Xinyi replied, "Germany may be able to endure it, but Italy, Austria-Hungary, and Russia will not. Although these three countries cannot decide when the war will end, they can decide when it will begin. When these three countries start the war, Britain and France will definitely get involved, and Germany will have no choice but to follow suit. Otherwise, Germany will not even have the opportunity to start the war and will be blockaded and forced to surrender."

After considering the map of Europe, Tamura agreed with Hayashi's statement that Germany's sea routes were controlled by Britain and France, and the only way to ensure contact with the outside world was the B-3 railway. Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were Germany's only safe land routes to Asia. If these routes were threatened, Germany would have no choice but to join the war.

Having figured out Germany's predicament, Tamura blurted out instinctively, "So the starting point of the European war should be the chaos in Eastern Europe? The conflict between Russia and Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire will ultimately make this war a reality?"

Lin Xinyi acknowledged that Tamura was not a foolish soldier. After being given enough information, Tamura, as the brain of the army, was naturally able to make the correct judgment. He nodded in agreement, saying, "I also think so. The war will not start on the stalemate between France and Germany or on the German coastline. The uncertainty in Eastern Europe for all parties is the fuse that stimulates all parties to take risks."

After Tamura figured it out, he also understood why Hayashi Shin-yi wanted the Asian Alliance to remain neutral. It wasn't that Hayashi had adopted a conservative stance, but rather that he had foreseen Germany's defeat. Driven by technology and industry, the nature of warfare had changed dramatically, a point Tamura had gradually come to realize during the war against Russia, but Hayashi Shin-yi clearly understood this much more advancedly.

European military strategists, however, have yet to truly grasp this point. Both German and French strategists are still contemplating how to defeat their opponents in a single Battle of Sedan. Once the actual war begins, the conflict in Europe will bring many unpredictable events to both sides. Germany may ultimately fail, but Britain and France will not emerge unscathed. Therefore, Japan's neutrality will indeed be advantageous in the post-war period.

However, it is clearly too late for the army to realize this now. The advantageous position has been taken by the navy. If the European war really goes as Hayashi Shinji predicted, then the Asian alliance led by the navy will benefit, not the Japanese military controlled by the army. It can even be said that the army is almost unlikely to gain any advantage in this European war, because the army did not seize the initiative.

After much deliberation, Tamura asked Hayashi Shin-yi, "If you were in charge of Germany's strategy, how would you lead Germany to victory?"

Lin Xinyi chuckled and said, "I will take out the German General Staff first."

Tamura was momentarily stunned, and Togo Masamichi, who hadn't said a word until now, also looked at Lin Xinyi with surprise and couldn't help but ask, "Why do we need to take out the German General Staff first? If we take out the General Staff, how can Germany win?"

Lin Xinyi replied, "Within ten years, only the German General Staff has the capability to launch a war, since only they have a war plan. Britain and France do not yet have a comprehensive operational plan against Germany; their reactions are all passive responses to German actions. Therefore, eliminating the German General Staff at least prevents Germany from starting the war first."

Tamura asked curiously, "Germany can't start a war, so how can it deal with Britain, France, and Russia provoking a war first?"

Lin Xinyi replied: "Without a strong Germany behind them, both Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire would adopt a defensive posture instead of actively competing with Russia for Eastern Europe, which would greatly reduce the risk of war in Eastern Europe."

As for Britain and France, as I've already said, neither of them has any plans to invade Germany. Their current preparations are all aimed at preventing a German invasion. Therefore, once Germany loses the brains that would launch the war, the risk of war in Europe can be reduced by at least half.

Therefore, during this period of peace, Germany's chance of victory lay in vigorously supporting industrialization in East Asia and striving to bring East Asia into the struggle for changing the world order as soon as possible. Germany's role was to maintain peace in Europe and contain the power of Britain, France, and Russia, rather than engaging them in direct warfare.

When East Asia begins to break free from the global colonial system established by Britain and France, the power of Britain and France will be continuously undermined, their military strength will decline, and they will eventually be forced to make peace with Germany. Germany will then be freed from the Allied blockade and can pursue the establishment of a new world order. However, I believe the Germans cannot do this because they lack a true imperial consciousness. Germany is ultimately just a nouveau riche; they have no historical experience in world domination, even the Russians are somewhat stronger than them.